More NFL thoughts

Written by SportsbookKS
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Andrew Patterson discusses a couple of NFL systems, and injury scares.
It`s nearly NFL time again! I must say I`m pretty excited. This is the Saints` year! No really it is!. OK, let`s ignore my optimistic fan predictions and discuss smart NFL betting.

I`ve discovered a couple of systems that are running at over 75% Against The Spread. This is pretty exciting as far as I am concerned. Sure, they don`t happen often, but when I can get such a nice edge on the books, I`m willing to wait.

1) On the road again:

If a team is playing its third consecutive road game and lost the first one straight up and won the second straight up then bet against them.



The thinking behind this one is simple. Most teams perform worse on the road than at home, and they get worse with each road game, so by the third game they won`t be playing at their best. On top of that, wins on the road are often followed by sub-par performances.

2) Kick a (home) dog when it`s down.

If a team loses the first two games of a three game home stand and is a dog of more than 3 points in the third one, then bet against them.

The thinking behind this one is obvious, if a team loses two straight at home, something is wrong, and no amount of turnaround talk is going to fix it. If they`re the dog in the third one, they`re likely to get pounded because, well, they suck.

But now, what to do about injuries? Well, the odds are that you won`t be finding out about them before the books do (although if you are glued to ESPN.com like I am, you are likely to find out about them before most recreational gamblers do).

It`s tempting to leap on a key injury to a side by betting their opponents. Sometimes it`s the right play, but often the bookies have already overcompensated for this instinct, and the real value is now to be found betting on the injured team (unless it`s the QB, most NFL players are not worth the 3 or more points a line might move).

Unless you are damn sure that the line had not adjusted enough or you`re playing on a betting exchange, so you are fairly sure the line will move but that you can get your money on first (and then cover for a nice guaranteed profit) then it pays to wait and see.

Most fans over-estimate the effect that star players have. The bookies have to react to the fans. If TO breaks his leg this season (if he even plays) people are going to start hating on the Eagles` chances far more than they should. Wait for the lines to adjust and then back the Eagles.

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