NFL History

Written by SportsbookKS
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In the NFL, underdogs playing at home have a history of beating the spread.
If you look at NFL results from the last 20 years, some interesting trends emerge.

The most important trend is that home team underdogs cover the spread a disproportionate amount of the time.

In fact, they have beaten the spread about 55% of the time (that means they either won, or lost by less than the spread). In theory, a perfectly set point spread should result in 50-50 results between favourite and dog.

So, does this 5% error mean anything to us? Well, if you spent the last 20 years betting any underdog playing at home, you would have made between a 1.5% profit (against a dime line) and a 4% profit (against a nickel line). This doesn`t sound stellar, but it`s a big turnaround from the 4.5% or 2.35% edge you would be bucking in a perfect world.

So, if you need action (to clear a bonus, for example), it`s probably worth betting on the home dog without any further thought. I use this rule of thumb to identify games that are worth looking more closely at.

Another fact I found interesting was that the Under wins slightly over 50% of the time (Over wins about 48% and the total is hit exactly just under 2% of the time). Why? Well, because the public like betting the over, because they like high scoring games, and pay more attention to offences.

This difference is even more noticeable with the Superbowl (which drags vast amounts of public money out of the woodwork). I would go as far as to say "always bet the under in the Superbowl", even without looking at the teams involved. When it`s a game of top defences, like the 2005 Pats-Eagles match, I put big money on the under.

These are definately not sure fire strategies, as always, you should do some research, and thinking about your bets. However, I always look for Home underdogs when I`m first scanning the lines for an NFL week. This trend is just one more thing to be aware of, and is no substitute for research (like they say in investment newsletters, past history is no guarantee of future performance, so don`t mortgage the house just on this plan).

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